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Espaço Aberto - CE-227 Turma - Primeiro Semestre/2014

Espaço Aberto - CE-227 Turma - Primeiro Semestre/2014

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Primeiro semestre de 2014 - Inferência Bayesiana

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1614977913@qq.com, 2023/03/23 04:49

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Anthony, 2022/11/12 16:06

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Holder, 2022/11/10 23:15

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Maria, 2022/11/10 09:06

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Barbara, 2022/11/08 22:02

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Fernando Moro, 2014/07/11 12:00, 2014/07/11 12:01

Aqui segue os slides da apresentação de bayesiana, como prometido. Consegui corrigir algumas coisas, mas outras não, porque tive a infelicidade de perder o arquivo .Rnw . bayesiana.pdf

Diancarlos, 2014/04/22 17:02

Ok encontrei … linha de comando : sudo apt-get install r-cran-rjags

Diancarlos P. Andrade, 2014/04/17 17:50

Alguem teve dificuldade em instalar o rjags! Estou com o seguinte erro:

Aviso: namespace ‘rjags’ is not available and has been replaced

by .GlobalEnv when processing object ‘LINE’

** testing if installed package can be loaded

Alguem tem uma dica…

Vanessa F. Sehaber, 2014/04/15 17:38

Sobre o JAGS

- No R, tanto no Linux quanto no Windows

Intalar os pacotes "coda" e "rjags" e chamar apenas o rjags → require(rjags)

NOTA: Instalar o pacote rjags não instala o JAGS.

- Instruções para instalação do JAGS no Linux

http://people.math.aau.dk/~kkb/Undervisning/bayes-08/install.html

- Download para instalação do JAGS no Windows

http://sourceforge.net/projects/mcmc-jags/files/latest/download

Vanessa F. Sehaber, 2014/04/10 09:59

## Atividade 26/03-------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
## 1) Priori uniforme U(0,1)
unif <- function(x, a=a, b=b) (x^{0})*1/(b-a)
 
## 2) Priori beta(alpha, beta)
beta <- function(x, a=A, b=B){
  gamma(a+b)/(gamma(a)*gamma(b))*(x^{a-1})*((1-x)^{b-1})
}
 
## 3) Priori Jeffreys (integrando 1)
jef <- function(x){
  f <- function(x){
    sqrt(1/(x*(1-x)))
  }
  c <- integrate(f, 0, 1)$value
  sqrt(1/(x*(1-x)))/c
}
 
## Função de verossimilhança da dist. binomial
L <- function(theta, n=N, y=Y){
  dbinom(y, size=n, prob=theta)
}
 
# Deixando a fç L na escala do parâmetro theta
plot.L <- function(x, y=Y, n=N){
dbeta(x, shape1=y+1, shape2=n-y+1)
}
 
## Posteriori 1)
post1 <- function(x, n=N, y=Y){
  dbeta(x, shape1=(y+1), shape2=(n-y+1))
}
 
## Posteriori 2)
post2 <- function(x, n=N, y=Y, a=A, b=A){
  dbeta(x, shape1=(y+a), shape2=(n+b-y))
}
 
## Posteriori 3)
post3 <- function(x, n=N, y=Y){
  dbeta(x, shape1=(y+0.5), shape2=(n-y+0.5))
}
 
 
## Valores iniciais
 
# Fç vero
N <- 15
Y <- 6
# priori unif
a <- 0
b <- 1
# priori beta
A <- 2.625
B <- 2.625
 
 
par(mfrow=c(1,3))
 
## Cenário 1
curve(post1, col=2, ylim=c(0, 4), lwd=3,
      xlab=expression(theta), ylab="y")
curve(unif(x, a=a, b=b), 0,1, col=4, add=T)
curve(plot.L(x), col=1, add=T)
legend("topright", 
       legend=c(expression(paste("[",theta, "]")), 
       expression(paste("[",y, "|", theta, "]")),
       expression(paste("[",theta, "|", x, "]"))), 
       col=c(4,1,2), bty="n", lty=1)
 
## Cenário 2
curve(post2, col=2, ylim=c(0, 4),
      xlab=expression(theta), ylab="y")
curve(beta(x), col=4, add=T)
curve(plot.L(x), col=1, add=T)
legend("topright", 
       legend=c(expression(paste("[",theta, "]")), 
       expression(paste("[",y, "|", theta, "]")),
       expression(paste("[",theta, "|", x, "]"))), 
       col=c(4,1,2), bty="n", lty=1)
 
## Cenário 3
curve(post3, col=2, ylim=c(0,4),
      xlab=expression(theta), ylab="y")
curve(jef(x), col=4, add=T)
curve(plot.L(x), col=1, add=T)
legend("topright", 
       legend=c(expression(paste("[",theta, "]")), 
       expression(paste("[",y, "|", theta, "]")),
       expression(paste("[",theta, "|", x, "]"))), 
       col=c(4,1,2), bty="n", lty=1)
 
layout(1)
##----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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